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2010 Early Hurricane Season Forecast...
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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010
(as of - Apr 8, 2010)
Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray have just released their forecast for the 2010 hurricane season and it is not favorable news.

"We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Nino will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

- ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010 -
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date
9 December 2009
Issue Date
7 April 2010
Name Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 51-75 75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3-5 4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) 6-12 10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 100-162 150
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160
 
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)  Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2)  U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3)  Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
1) 58% (average for last century is 42%)
Courtesy of: Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University


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            This week, the topic is SKYWARN. Skywarn is a program run by the National Weather Service for the purpose of providing a very important aspect of weather reporting. That is the reports from human eyes on the ground. The Weather Service has many devices for detecting severe weather such as radar, satellite and lightning detection networks but the most important tool for observing severe weather is still the trained eye of the storm spotter...

 

            Doppler weather radar, while a big improvement in detecting wind patterns in storms, has a blind spot of sorts. The further away from the radar unit the storm is, there is a bigger area close to the ground that can not be seen by the radar. To fill in the missing information, the meteorologists need the reports from people on the ground. Sometimes the radar shows severe weather that is in fact not there. Other times the reverse is true. Only reports from spotters on the ground can verify what is actually happening at ground level. This information is very valuable to the meteorologists, increasing the accuracy of their information...

 

            The data that a trained spotter sends to the Weather Service Office increases the accuracy of any warnings issued by the office and provides the citizens of the community with life saving information. Amateur Radio operators provide the backbone of many spotter networks. Most NWS offices have ham operators and stations right in the office. These people coordinate the reports from the field so that the weather office staff get the information quickly and accurately. Law enforcement and fire departments also serve as spotters in many areas. Their dispatcher will transmit their observations to the NWS. Even private citizens can be Skywarn Spotters with the appropriate training from the NWS.

            I have been talking a lot about training, so how hard is it? The answer is you can do it. The local office of the National Weather Service in Ruskin offers courses many times throughout the year. The Basic Spotter Course takes about one hour and the Advanced Course another hour. They are usually given one after the other in one two to two and one half hour session. In the course the student learns about cloud types, thunderstorms, tornados, hail, super cells and all aspects of severe weather...

 

            Every trained spotter is required to retake the course at least every three years to renew their qualification. These courses are usually given in the evening, but can be arranged for almost any time that a group of people is available and wants the course. When the course is completed, a spotter will have a Spotter ID number, charts indicating reporting criteria and definitions of severe weather and phone numbers and procedures to report severe weather. Ham operators who are trained spotters will also get a list of frequencies and networks to use to report directly to Ruskin.

            If you own a home weather station, you can report its data directly to the weather service via the Citizen Weather Observer Program. In this program, your computer is connected to your home weather station and sends the data directly to the NWS through the internet. You must register with the program, of course, but it is not difficult. Ham operators can do this as well using a program called APRS (automatic Position Reporting System). This system can send weather data directly...

 

            There are many ways to assist your community in time of need. Becoming a Ham Operator and a Skywarn Weather Spotter are two very good ones. Next week I will explain how to get your Amateur Radio License...

 

73,

Geoff Haines, N1GY

 

 
 
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